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When a government cuts off the internet during a conflict, it is usually trying to control the narrative. When an armed faction does it, the logic is more tactical. In Tigray this week, both possibilities are in play, and the result is a region of millions of people being plunged back into the kind of isolation that preceded one of this century’s deadliest wars.
Fighting broke out on Wednesday between forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia’s federal army, shattering a peace agreement that had held since 2022. Almost immediately, telecommunications collapsed across the northern region. Internet monitoring group NetBlocks posted on X that network data confirmed a sub-national internet shutdown in Tigray, with services from state-owned Ethio Telecom cut entirely. The smaller private operator Safaricom remained operational, offering a partial lifeline.
A Blackout With a Military Logic
The cause of the communications collapse is contested but telling. Sources cited by Reuters say the TPLF itself ordered the blackout, with at least one source suggesting the intent was to interfere with Ethiopian government drone operations. Drones have become a central feature of modern African conflicts, used for surveillance and strikes alike, and disrupting the communications infrastructure that supports them has real battlefield value. The TPLF has not confirmed or denied the claim.
Duke Burbridge, an American humanitarian worker based in Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, told the BBC’s Newsday programme that telecommunications went down overnight. His account, along with that of a Mekelle resident identified only as Fitsum, paints a picture of a city that has gone quiet in the way cities do when people are afraid. Fitsum told the BBC the atmosphere was like a curfew had been imposed, with residents limiting movement and panic buying reported in the days after fighting began.
The TPLF’s military moves have been swift. On Wednesday, its forces seized control of three airports from federal police. Ethiopian Airlines responded by cancelling all flights to Tigray. A humanitarian source in the neighbouring Afar region told AFP there was heavy fighting overnight, including drone strikes, around the mountain town of Abala, as federal forces pushed back against rebel advances. Reports of clashes have also emerged near Lalibela in the Amhara region, a UNESCO World Heritage site known for its rock-hewn churches. The United States has issued travel warnings covering all three regions.
The Human Cost Is Already Compounding
What makes the communications shutdown particularly brutal is the economic fragility it lands on. Burbridge noted that Tigray has faced a severe cash shortage for the past eight months, with residents unable to access ATMs. In that environment, mobile banking and digital payment applications have become essential for basic transactions. Most of those services run through Ethio Telecom and Safaricom networks. With Ethio Telecom down, the shutdown is not merely an inconvenience. As Burbridge put it to the BBC, it would be “devastating for everybody.”
This is a pattern with grim historical precedent. During the two-year civil war that ended in 2022, Tigray was cut off almost entirely from the outside world. The combination of restricted access to cash, food, and medicine pushed hundreds of thousands of people into famine-like conditions. Estimates suggest around 600,000 people died during that conflict, making it one of the deadliest wars anywhere on the planet in recent decades. The infrastructure of suffering, including the dependency on mobile money, the fragile supply chains, and the limited outside visibility, has not fundamentally changed.
A Fragile Peace Unravelling Fast
The speed of the current escalation reflects how unstable the 2022 settlement always was. On Sunday, just days before the fighting began, the TPLF announced a formal alliance with six other armed groups, with the stated goal of ousting the federal government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. That coalition announcement was effectively a declaration of renewed hostilities, and the airport seizures on Wednesday confirmed it.
The BBC has noted it is unable to report directly from Tigray and surrounding areas, meaning verified information is scarce. Most footage and imagery circulating online has originated from outside the region, and even before the current blackout, establishing ground truth was difficult. That information vacuum matters beyond journalism. It limits the ability of humanitarian organisations to assess needs, coordinate responses, or document abuses.
For the broader region, the stakes extend well beyond Ethiopia’s borders. A return to full-scale civil war in Tigray would generate refugee flows into Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti, all of which are already managing significant instability of their own. The Horn of Africa sits at a strategic chokepoint for global shipping and is a theatre of active interest for Gulf states, China, and Western powers. ASEAN and Southeast Asian nations have limited direct exposure, but any prolonged conflict that disrupts Red Sea trade routes carries indirect consequences for the export-dependent economies of Malaysia and Singapore.
What is unfolding in Tigray is not simply a resumption of an old war. It is a test of whether the architecture of the 2022 peace was ever solid enough to hold, and early evidence suggests it was not. The communications blackout, whatever its origin, ensures that the world will be watching through a very narrow window as events accelerate.
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