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Economic data and lived experience do not always tell the same story, and in Zambia’s 2025 election, that gap is the entire contest. On Thursday, more than eight million registered voters began casting ballots from 06:00 local time to choose a president and parliament, with incumbent Hakainde Hichilema seeking a second five-year term against a field of fourteen candidates. The race is widely understood to come down to two men, and the question separating them is simple: has Zambia’s much-cited economic rebound actually reached ordinary Zambians?
Civil society monitors reported mostly orderly voting alongside isolated delays and procedural issues, with international observers present throughout. A presidential candidate must clear 50 percent of the vote to win outright, failing which a run-off must be held within 37 days.
A Recovery on Paper, a Struggle on the Ground
Hichilema, 64, came to power in 2021 on his sixth attempt at the presidency, and his tenure has produced numbers that look impressive in a finance ministry briefing. His government completed a debt restructuring, stabilised the kwacha, and brought inflation down from crisis levels. Speaking to AFP after casting his ballot, Hichilema framed his pitch for a second term in those terms: “After doing the heavy lifting, such as debt restructure, restoring the mining sector, now we want a step change in the growth so that we can take care of society.”
But the distance between macroeconomic stabilisation and household relief is exactly where his challenger, Brian Mundubile, is trying to plant his flag. Samuel Chitendwe, a 47-year-old welder and father of four who voted for Mundubile, put it bluntly to Reuters: “I have just come from firing someone. We are tired of stories about economic progress.” Unemployment and the rising cost of living remain the dominant concerns for voters, and no amount of debt restructuring language addresses a household that cannot cover its bills.
The contrast in voter sentiment is sharp. James Phiri, a 29-year-old student at the University of Zambia, told Reuters he voted for Hichilema, known widely by his initials HH, specifically because the president re-introduced meal allowances for students. Mwiche Nalupumbwe, 26, who queued before polling stations opened, told AFP the election felt like a genuine toss-up: “Zambians are frustrated and this election is a 50-50, that is why we are all here early to make the change.”
The Challenger and the Weight of Lungu’s Legacy
Mundubile is not a fresh face. He served as a minister under the Patriotic Front government that ruled Zambia from 2011 to 2021, and his alliance draws heavily from supporters of the late former President Edgar Lungu. After voting, Mundubile told reporters he stood for “peace and unity” as well as the empowerment of young people and women, adding: “This is indeed our second independence. I want every Zambian to celebrate this day.”
The invocation of Lungu’s legacy carries complicated weight. Lungu died more than a year ago, but his body remains unburied in South Africa, caught in a bitter dispute between his family and Hichilema’s government. That unresolved situation has sharpened political divisions in Zambia and given Mundubile’s coalition an emotional charge that goes beyond policy disagreements. For many PF supporters, the election is partly personal.
Democracy Under Scrutiny
Beyond the economic debate, the vote is being watched as a test of Zambia’s standing as one of Africa’s more stable democracies. That reputation is not unconditional. Amnesty International criticised Hichilema’s government for restricting rights and freedoms in the period leading up to the election, an accusation that Zambian authorities had not publicly addressed as of voting day. The presence of international observers and the largely orderly conduct reported so far suggest institutions are holding, but the Amnesty criticism is a reminder that democratic health cannot be measured by election-day logistics alone.
Zambia has no direct strategic significance for Malaysia or Singapore in terms of trade or investment flows, but the election carries a broader resonance for the region. Emerging markets across Southeast Asia and Africa are navigating the same tension Zambia embodies: the gap between creditor-friendly fiscal reform and the political patience of populations who want to see that reform translate into jobs and affordable food. When voters in Lusaka queue before dawn saying the result feels like a coin flip, it signals that economic credibility built in bond markets does not automatically convert into political credibility built at the ballot box. That is a lesson with no borders.
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