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When a senior analyst at one of the world’s most established banks starts second-guessing whether his own Bitcoin price target is ambitious enough, it signals a meaningful shift in institutional sentiment. That is exactly where Standard Chartered finds itself right now.
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said in a note shared with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could push toward its all-time high of $126,000 before the year is out, with momentum potentially accelerating after October 6. Bitcoin was trading at $76,844 at the time of writing, up 24% over the past week, according to CoinGecko data. “For the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast (of USD100k) is too low,” Kendrick wrote.
How Bearish Positioning Set Up This Rally
Kendrick’s note points to a specific mechanical driver behind the recent price surge: short liquidations. When traders who had bet against Bitcoin were forced to close those positions as prices climbed, their buying activity amplified the upward move. This kind of short squeeze can produce sharp, fast rallies that look dramatic on a chart but do not always reflect a fundamental shift in demand.
What makes Kendrick’s read more interesting is the secondary signal he highlights. Inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have begun recovering alongside the price move, and open interest across derivatives markets remains relatively low. Low open interest means fewer leveraged positions are already in the market, which in turn means there is more room for fresh capital to enter without immediately triggering the kind of overcrowding that precedes sharp corrections. In Kendrick’s framing, the setup leaves space for a sustained move rather than a brief spike.
This is a notable shift in tone from the same analyst who, in a February 12 report, cut Standard Chartered’s year-end Bitcoin target from $150,000 down to $100,000 and slashed its Ether forecast from $7,500 to $4,000. At that point, Kendrick expected Bitcoin to fall as low as $50,000 and Ether to $1,400 before any meaningful recovery. The fact that he is now publicly questioning whether $100,000 is a ceiling rather than a target reflects how quickly the market’s character has changed.
Other Voices Are Reaching Similar Conclusions
Kendrick is not alone in reassessing the bearish case. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten has said Bitcoin may find its bottom in October, while Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, previously argued that an August close above $63,000 could confirm that the bear market had ended. These are not fringe voices. They represent a cluster of analysts and operators with real market exposure who are converging on the view that the worst of the downturn is behind the market.
That convergence matters because institutional positioning tends to follow analytical consensus with a lag. If the dominant view among credible research desks shifts from “wait for the bottom” to “the bottom is in,” capital allocation decisions at funds and treasury desks begin to change. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows recovering in tandem with price is one early sign that this rotation may already be underway.
What This Means for Investors in the Region
For investors in Malaysia and Singapore, the Standard Chartered signal carries particular weight. The bank operates significant retail and private banking businesses across both markets, and its digital asset research desk is one of the few at a traditional institution that publishes regular, specific price targets rather than vague directional commentary. When that desk revises its posture upward, it tends to influence how relationship managers and wealth advisers frame crypto exposure conversations with clients.
Singapore’s Monetary Authority of Singapore has been building out its digital asset regulatory framework steadily, and several licensed exchanges operate in the city-state. Malaysian investors, meanwhile, access crypto primarily through Securities Commission-registered platforms such as Luno, MX Global, and Tokenize. For users on those platforms, the practical implication is straightforward: if institutional analysts are reassessing upside targets, retail sentiment is likely to follow, which historically has meant increased trading volumes and tighter spreads on local exchanges.
The caveat worth holding onto is that short liquidation-driven rallies can reverse quickly if the underlying demand does not materialise. Kendrick’s note is bullish, but it is conditional. The recovery in ETF inflows and the low open interest environment are supportive conditions, not guarantees. A single macro shock or regulatory headline could reset the picture fast.
Why the Revision Itself Is the Story
The most significant thing about Kendrick’s note is not the price level it points to. It is the fact that a major bank’s research head is publicly admitting his downside-anchored forecast from February may have been wrong in the wrong direction. In an environment where institutional credibility is built on measured, conservative calls, that kind of public recalibration is unusual and worth taking seriously.
If Bitcoin does approach its all-time high before December, it would validate a pattern that has played out in previous cycles: deep pessimism at the lows, followed by a recovery that moves faster and further than most analysts expected. The question for investors now is whether the structural conditions, recovering ETF demand, low leverage, and shifting institutional tone, are durable enough to sustain a run of that magnitude. Standard Chartered’s Kendrick, for one, is no longer confident they are not.
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